Get Ready for Another Structural HOUSING SHORTAGE …

Get ready for another structural housing shortage

By Unconventional Economist in Australian Property

October 23, 2019 | 15 comments

Australians are going to have to get used to living in more cramped and crowded accommodation as housing supply once again falls below rampant immigration-fuelled population growth.

That’s the view of Australia’s largest listed developer, Stockland, who has warned that housing shortages are developing from coast-to-coast:

The country’s largest listed residential developer Stockland has warned that housing shortages could emerge in every market in Australia as the property cycle accelerates…

“We expect you will see quite a considerable undersupply emerge in just about every housing market in the country,” [CEO Mark Steinert said]…

Tim Johansen, the global head of capital at development financier Qualitas, backed this view:

“There might be a lot of cranes on the skyline but that masks what is happening”…

“We think the supply has dropped off big time and it’s taking a lot longer to get a new development started”…

The RBACBA and BIS Oxford Economics all made similar predictions last week.

It’s hard to disagree. Both dwelling approvals and commencements have collapsed, meaning that dwelling supply will fall sharply over the next two years at least:

Growing concerns over apartment quality, alongside growing developer bankruptcies, will also prevent construction from rebounding. Thus, we are looking at a protracted construction downturn.

However, just because Australia’s housing market is headed into structural undersupply doesn’t automatically mean that prices and rents will surge.

Household income growth remains anaemic:

Whereas unemployment is also set to rise, owing partly to the construction jobs bust:

Australian households are also carrying gigantic debt loads at the same time mortgage rates are approaching their structural bottom:

The likely scenario is that household formation will slow as more Australians hunker down together (e.g. youngsters will live with mum and dad for longer or in group homes).

Accordingly, the slowing housing supply will be met by slowing demand, thereby limiting any rent / price increases.

SOURCE: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/get-ready-for-another-structural-housing-shortage/

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CBA: Mass Immigration will keep AUSTRALIAN HOUSING Unaffordable!

KEY POINTS ...

-an additional 17.5 million people will massively increase demand for housing, thus placing upward pressure on values

the claim that immigration is “the fountain of youth” fails Demography 101

-a key driver of Australia’s current ‘baby boomer bulge’ is the mass immigration program ran in the post-war period i.e. 1950s and 1960s

-these migrants have now grown old, thus adding to Australia’s current ageing ‘problem’

-therefore importing more migrants is the equivalent of ‘can-kick economics’; today’s migrants will also grow old’; an ageing problem in 40 year’s time

running annual net overseas migration (NOM) of 200,000 to 280,000 delivers only 3% more working-aged Australians by 2101 than zero NOM

adding 150% to 200% more people to Australia’s population versus zero NOM

Such a massive increase in population will obviously take a massive toll on Australia’s natural environment and general liveability.

CBA: Mass immigration will keep Australian housing unaffordable

By Unconventional Economist in Australian Property

October 21, 2019 | 5 comments

CBA interest rate strategists, Jarrod Kerr and Adam Donaldson, claim that mass immigration is Australia’s “fountain of youth” and will prevent housing prices from falling. From The Australian:

👿
😂

Back in January 2017, the interest rate strategists at the Commonwealth Bank published a Global Markets Research paper called Demography is Destiny for Interest Rates, But Immigration a Fountain of Youth. Kerr and Donaldson were the authors…

Deflation, not inflation, is listed as the biggest threat ahead…

The paper does not predict Australian house prices will fall, though. So it may not be wise for millennials to sit back and wait for them to become cheaper.

The paper makes the case that, against the trends in many other countries, Australia will still experience growth.

Our differentiator is immigration, “the fountain of youth”. Put simply, we are a destination of choice for China and India. The average age of our immigrant is in the mid-20s, and people at this stage in life form families and buy houses.

CBA’s claim that mass immigration will prevent Australian housing from deflating is uncontroversial.

Australia’s population is projected to balloon by another 17.5 million people over the next 48 years to around 43 million people, with all of this growth to come via net overseas migration (NOM):

Obviously, this additional 17.5 million people will massively increase demand for housing, thus placing upward pressure on values.

*Where the CBA’s analysis falls short is the claim that immigration is “the fountain of youth”. This fails Demography 101.

*A key driver of Australia’s current ‘baby boomer bulge’ is the mass immigration program ran in the post-war period (i.e. 1950s and 1960s):

*These migrants (which include my parents) have now grown old, thus adding to Australia’s current ageing ‘problem’. Therefore, importing more migrants to solve ageing is the equivalent of ‘can-kick economics’, because today’s migrants will also grow old, thus creating further ageing problems in 40 year’s time.

Second, the ABS’ own demographic projections show that immigration is next to useless in ‘younging’ Australia’s population.

*That is, if we apply a more realistic definition for the working aged population of 19 to 70 (given more kids are staying in school and older Australians are working longer), then running annual net overseas migration (NOM) of 200,000 to 280,000 delivers only 3% more working-aged Australians by 2101 than zero NOM:

*This tiny ‘benefit’ will only be transitory and comes at the expense of adding 150% to 200% more people to Australia’s population versus zero NOM:

*Such a massive increase in population will obviously take a massive toll on Australia’s natural environment and general liveability.

Detailed counter-arguments to the CBA’s “fountain of youth” claim are articulated in the research paper Three Economic Myths about Ageing: Participation, Immigration and Infrastructure, which was authored by Dr Cameron Murray and I and commissioned by Sustainable Australia.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/AgeingMythReport_vPUBLISH.pdf

Photo: The Australian

SOURCE: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/cba-mass-immigration-will-keep-australian-housing-unaffordable/

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Residents’ fears grow over motorway tunnels under homes

WHAT is the basis of all of this ‘grief for Australian Constituents’?

Apart from GREED?

.to benefit the Big End of Town ... we will continue to refer to them as such!

Their Population Ponzi that created the congestion and artificially a demand for more transport infrastructureTaxpayers having footed the bill initially for Transurban privatisation …

MORE of the same with NSW INC having destroyed Heritage Windsor’s Thompson Square and the Windsor Bridge WestCONnex and its tentacles tunnelling across Sydney … through Compulsory Acquisition … AND NorthCONnex too … the loss of our Heavy Rail Network for a privately owned Hong Kong Consortium MTR METRO … more tunnelling with high-rise development … high-rise Precincts and Medium-Density Housing Code underway for more foreign buyers to park their ‘black money’ … to become ‘Permanent Residents’

SEARCH CAAN WEBSITE TO FIND OUT MORE …

‘Crazy stuff’: Residents’ fears grow over motorway tunnels under homes

Megan Gorrey
By Megan Gorrey

October 21, 2019

Residents fear plans to tunnel 15 metres or shallower beneath dozens of homes for an underground spaghetti junction in Sydney’s inner west will render their properties “uninhabitable and unsellable”.

A draft for the WestConnex project’s $3.9 billion Rozelle interchange was released last month as the NSW government forges ahead with its ambitious network below scores of inner city homes.

Nikki Wedgwood is worried about the tunnels for the Rozelle interchange that will be dug eight metres below her street in Leichhardt.
Nikki Wedgwood is worried about the tunnels for the Rozelle interchange that will be dug eight metres below her street in Leichhardt. CREDIT:SAM MOOY

The plans say the bulk of the interchange – aimed at easing traffic congestion – will be 35 to 65 metres deep in Rozelle and Lilyfield, with tunnels extending under Leichhardt and Annandale.

But residents are worried that new maps suggest the tunnels will be as close as six metres under homes and shallower than the depths indicated in an environmental statement.Advertisement

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The proposed Rozelle Interchange
WESTCONNEX

The complex spaghetti junction deep beneath Sydney’s inner west revealed

Their concerns add to frustrations over shrinking tunnel depths, construction noise, vibrations, and cracking damage felt by residents along earlier stages of the 33-kilometre toll route.

Leichhardt home owner Nikki Wedgwood said she had understood that the tunnel beneath her Emma Street property would be about 25 metres deep. The latest map showed it will be eight metres.

“My main concern is once the tunnels have been built there will be constant vibrations and noise and my house will be uninhabitable and unsellable,” she said.

“I still have hundreds of thousands of dollars to pay off my mortgage, so I’d be paying off a home I couldn’t live in and couldn’t sell … I’m incredibly worried about it.”

Another Emma Street resident, Alesoun Marsden, was previously told the tunnel would run 12 metres below her home.

A proposed draft of the Rozelle Interchange, the final and most complicated facet of WestConnex.
A proposed draft of the Rozelle Interchange, the final and most complicated facet of WestConnex.

The latest mapping shows the road will overlap a 29-metre-deep tunnel for the M4-M5 link and sit eight metres below the surface.

“I’m very concerned there will be ongoing noise and vibration that will make my life unliveable,” Ms Marsden said.

Leichhardt Against WestConnex spokeswoman Christina Valentine was disappointed the depths appeared to have “materially changed without any community consultation”.

A Transport for NSW spokesman said some changes and improvements had been made to the project after the original environmental impact statement following “detailed design work”.

He said residents might notice vibration and noise during construction directly below or near their properties. They would be offered “mitigation measures”, including alternative accommodation, where appropriate.

“In most cases, ground-borne noise from tunnelling will be less than the noise of a refrigerator,” he said.

The spokesman said the average depth of the tunnels was 35 metres. About 169 properties will sit above tunnels 15 metres deep – “the equivalent of a four-storey building” – or shallower.

Residents have previously been told they will not hear traffic when the tunnels open.

Inner West councillor Pauline Lockie said the new depths were “particularly concerning” given residents above deeper tunnels in North Strathfield claimed the project had cracked their houses.

“Now we’re talking less than 10 metres in some cases, and nearly 200 homes where the tunnels are less than 15 metres [below properties],” Cr Lockie said. “This is crazy stuff.”

The Transport for NSW spokesman said the contractors would use “well-established construction methods”.

“While no impact to homes is expected, any impact found to be caused by construction will be addressed at no cost to residents,” he said.

Civil engineer Philip Pells, who has worked on some of Sydney’s biggest tunnelling projects, has heard of some residents living above road tunnel construction “hearing the excavator at night – a vague grinding noise in the distance”.

“It’s possible for a house sitting six metres above the tunnel they may – may – feel the vibration [of traffic]. But most of the tunnels are way below that,” he said.

Dr Pells said the “real issue” was the potential damage to houses, buildings and infrastructure due to ground movement.Play Video

Media companies launch campaign against government

Play video1:52Residents claim WestConnex caused walls to crack

Residents on Carrington Street in Strathfield near WestConnex stage one are fighting for compensation, claiming their walls have cracked because of underground tunnelling.

“In almost all these other projects – the Eastern Distributor, NorthConnex, WestConnex or the M5 East – there have been a significant number of claims [for compensation over property damage],” he said.

“I don’t know how it’s going to play out; the fat lady hasn’t sung yet on these projects.”

RELATED ARTICLE

A new motorway overpass will be built in Sydney's inner west in an expansion of the controversial WestConnex project, which critics claim will create an eyesore akin to the Cahill Expressway.
ROADS

‘Worse than Cahill Expressway’: new WestConnex overpass condemned

University of Technology Sydney geotechnical engineering expert Behzad Fatahi said tunnelling techniques and machinery had improved in recent years but engineers “can’t say there is zero risk”.

“There is some level of risk always but we try to minimise it.”

Associate Professor Fatahi said the degree of settlement above tunnelling projects depended on the condition of the ground, the depth and size of the void and the types of tunnel supports used.

Megan Gorrey

Megan Gorrey is the Urban Affairs reporter at the Sydney Morning Herald.

SOURCE: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/crazy-stuff-residents-fears-grow-over-motorway-tunnels-under-homes-20191001-p52wq0.html

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THE GOLD COAST Wants to be Classified as ‘REGIONAL’ to bring in More MIGRANTS!

VIEW the analysis by the Unconventional Economist and CAAN’s comments!

https://caanhousinginequalitywithaussieslockedout.com/2019/10/20/population-ponzi-destroys-gold-coast-but-universities-demand-more/?fbclid=IwAR35QQvV2fq59TPc0A2LB1Nct1n1sNkVQ43wah0RQN4N356DPmyuZ45fIPo

The Gold Coast wants to be classified as ‘regional’ to bring in more migrants

01:21 / 01:21

VIDEO LINK:

blob:https://www.sbs.com.au/4bcfdb73-605b-4041-8b43-00603033c2e6

The Gold Coast is lobbying to be reclassified from ‘metro’ to ‘regional’ under Australia’s migration system in order to bring in more skilled migrants and international students.

But some say the city already has enough advantage.

BY ROSEMARY BOLGERSHARE

The Gold Coast wants to be reclassified as a regional area so it can boost its number of skilled migrants and international students.

The south-east Queensland city is classed as ‘metro’ under the federal government’s migration program, alongside Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. 

That means the Gold Coast won’t benefit from new visas and incentives set to be introduced next month as part of the federal government’s push to ease congestion in the cities and encourage migrants and international students to go regional.

Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

Gold Coast universities say they’ll be disadvantaged if international student incentives do not apply to them.Getty

With a population half that of Adelaide, which is considered regional, tertiary institutions in the Gold Coast argue the definition is unfair.

Study Gold Coast chief executive Alfred Slogrove said the city only attracted four per cent of the international student market, compared to Melbourne and Sydney which are home to about 85 per cent of international students.

“We have less than Adelaide, we have the equivalent of other parts of the country that are deemed regional in terms of international student numbers.

“We’re not looking to be treated differently, we’re just looking to be treated the same when it comes to international education.”

Study Gold Coast CEO Alfred Slogrove

Alfred Slogrove says the city only has four per cent of the international student market.SBS News

From November, international students who graduate from a regional university will be able to work for an extra year in Australia. There will also be 1,000 scholarships worth $15,000 available every year to international students in regional areas.

Study Gold Coast, a consortium of tertiary education providers including Bond and Griffith universities, has submitted a business case to Immigration Minister David Coleman in a bid to change its classification before then.READ MORE

Federal Education Minister Dan Tehan.

Universities urged to not rely on international students for revenue

“We need the incentives to help us attract us the best quality talent here to the coast that support all different types of the economy including visiting family and relatives to our tourism market. They also help local businesses globalise,” Mr Slogrove said.

Bond University student Boula Benyamin from Canada said being able to stay in Australia for longer post-degree would make a difference to his decision on where to study.

“Every day you think about do I want to stay here to work, how’s working here going to affect me? Such a beautiful place, it’s a place you want to stay … so that would be a great opportunity.”

Bond University student Boula Benyamin moved from Canada to study on the Gold Coast.

Bond University student Boula Benyamin moved from Canada to study on the Gold Coast.

For other students, the Gold Coast lifestyle is incentive enough.

“Life here is more relaxed, it’s more chill and big cities always busy, crowded,” says Yama from China.

“I love here, I don’t want to go anywhere else.”

Universities in the area fear they are already being disadvantaged, as education agents begin spruiking the new incentives and encouraging prospective students to look elsewhere.

Gold Coast accused of ‘gaming’ the system

Boasting gleaming high rises along beautiful beaches, the Gold Coast does not fit with traditional images of regional Australia.

The Gold Coast’s campaign has highlighted difficulties in drawing the boundary between regional and metro as the government tries to simplify the definition for visas. 

Regional education expert John Halsey accuses the Gold Coast of trying to “game” the system, arguing the federal government’s definition when it comes to international students is already too broad.READ MORE

Backpackers at Melbourne Airport

Soaring temporary migrant numbers outstrip Morrison’s ‘congestion busting’ cut

“To classify Adelaide as regional per se in terms of the definition has a distorting impact on the policy.”

Professor Halsey, who conducted a review into regional, rural and remote education for the federal government in 2017, said if the government wants to achieve its aim of not simply easing congestion in the major cities, but using international students to stimulate struggling country areas, they need to tighten the boundaries.

“So that the definition doesn’t become gamed, if you like, or significantly distorted and the net result is that those that already have an advantage or degree of privilege and a degree of capacity to attract, are further advantaged compared to what I want to call ‘more authentic’ or ‘bonafide regional locations’.”

‘Blurry line’

The Gold Coast’s population of 600,000 has been steadily growing over the last few years, by 2.6 per cent in 2018. 

Mr Coleman said it significantly outstrips the Australia average growth of 1.6 per cent. 

He told SBS News in a statement the Gold Coast’s metropolitan status had not changed as part of the government’s decision to replace four different definitions currently in use for different skilled migration visas with one simpler definition. 

“The Gold Coast has been classified as part of metropolitan Australia under the core skilled migration program since 1993 when the classification of parts of Australia as regional or non-regional for skilled migration began,” he said. 

Immigration Minister David Coleman

Immigration Minister David Coleman wants to simplify the definition of ‘regional’ for a range of visas.AAP

But a closer look at the statistics paints a different picture, says Regional Australia Institute co-chief executive Kim Houghton.

“It’s a blurry line,” he said. “Clearly the Gold Coast is right up the metro city end of that regional city spectrum but it does have many of the characteristics of a regional city rather than a capital metro.”

The definition not only applies to international student visas, but two new regional visas offering 23,000 places to prospective skilled migrant workers. If they live and work in a regional area for at least three years they will then be able to apply for permanent residency – the ultimate goal of many migrants.READ MORE

Minister for Population, Cities and Urban Infrastructure Alan Tudge gives a speech during the official opening of the Western Sydney International Experience Centre, Luddenham, NSW, Monday, September 2, 2019. ( AAP Image/Bianca De Marchi) NO ARCHIVING

New Population Centre to investigate why migrants shun regions

The RAI has four classifications from rural to metro capital city, using measures such as the number of people employed in high wage-earning professional jobs, house prices and wages as differentiating factors.

On those measures, RAI is not surprised the Gold Coast is making a case for reclassification.

“They too are grappling with issues of trying to attract and retain more professionals, particularly tertiary qualified or highly skilled trades and technically qualified people so I think it makes a lot of sense,” Mr Houghton said.

Regional Australia Institute believes there are enough regional visas for all. 

“Only a slight difference to those flows will make quite a difference to the places out in regional Australia.”

He said the government should consider expanding the number of visas available if the policy proves effective at better dispersing the flow of international students.

Study Gold Coast’s business case argues the region needs to diversify its population pointing out that migrants from China and India, the main sources of migrants to Australia, tend not to settle in the Gold Coast. 

“The reasons for recent significant population growth in Melbourne and Sydney do not apply to the Gold Coast, so the Gold Coast is paying the international education price of the geographic classification system that appears ill-advised,” the document stated. 

Mr Slogrove doubted other smaller areas did not have the infrastructure to handle a significant increase in student numbers. 

“We just had the Commonwealth Games and we’ve got infrastructure in place to support growth in international student numbers,” he said.  

SOURCE: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-gold-coast-wants-to-be-classified-as-regional-to-bring-in-more-migrants

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Population ponzi destroys Gold Coast. But universities demand MORE

Two surfers, skyline in background

KEY POINTS …

rabid population growth is wrecking liveability across the Gold Coast

-in 20 years development will be fuelled by a population boom of 350,000 people; more than half the city’s current population

*IT’S TIME AUSTRALIANS OBJECTED TO ‘OVERDEVELOPMENT’ BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT IT IS!*

IT’S NOT LIKE HIGH IMMIGRATION OF VIBRANTS IS MAKING LIVEABILITY, OUR ENVIRONMENT, OUR AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY BETTER

with our Real Estate awash with Black Money; $100 Bills mysteriously circulating despite Aussies paying by Card!

-from November, international students who graduate from a regional university will be able to work for an extra year in Australia

-*1,000 scholarships worth $15,000 available every year to international students in regional areas

*WHAT ABOUT STUDENT SCHOLARSHIPS FOR AUSTRALIANS?*

IF the GOLD COAST CITY has only attracted 4% of the International Student Market so far … how much more UNATTRACTIVE AND OVERPOPULATED will the Gold Coast become with even more Real Estate Tourists to accompany a growth in Student Numbers?

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Population ponzi destroys Gold Coast. But universities demand MORE

By Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy

October 18, 2019 | 14 comments

The ABC has published a detailed report on how rabid population growth is wrecking liveability across the Gold Coast:

The Gold Coast may just be the urban equivalent of human growth serum.

Over the next two decades, development there will be fuelled by an expected population boom of 350,000 people — more than half of the city’s current population…

As the population builds along one of Australia’s most iconic tourist destinations, some locals are worried it could wipe out the very character that makes the Gold Coast unique.

‘Unattractive and overpopulated’

Ms Jensen was one of 200 people who attended a community meeting this week in Palm Beach, where locals voiced their concerns over the council’s proposed city plan.

“It seems to me architects and town planners just decide to put a high-rise up without even looking at the area,” she said…

Kim Parker, who has lived on the Gold Coast for 20 years, said the area had become “overpopulated and unattractive”…

*“We’re not against development … but a lot of the buildings we’re seeing are just horrible brick blocks of concrete with ugly black and grey verandas.

“We can still fit people in, but we don’t have to do it in a way that crowds out character.”

Meanwhile, Gold Coast’s universities are lobbying the federal government to classify it as ‘regional’ so that it can attract more international students and ‘skilled’ migrants:

Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

The Gold Coast wants to be reclassified as a regional area so it can boost its number of skilled migrants and international students.

The south-east Queensland city is classed as ‘metro’ under the federal government’s migration program, alongside Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.

That means the Gold Coast won’t benefit from new visas and incentives set to be introduced next month as part of the federal government’s push to ease congestion in the cities and encourage migrants and international students to go regional…

Study Gold Coast chief executive Alfred Slogrove said the city only attracted four per cent of the international student market…

“We’re not looking to be treated differently, we’re just looking to be treated the same when it comes to international education”…

From November, international students who graduate from a regional university will be able to work for an extra year in Australia.

*There will also be 1,000 scholarships worth $15,000 available every year to international students in regional areas.

Study Gold Coast, a consortium of tertiary education providers including Bond and Griffith universities, has submitted a business case to Immigration Minister David Coleman in a bid to change its classification before then.

We need the incentives to help us attract us the best quality talent here to the coast that support all different types of the economy including visiting family and relatives to our tourism market. They also help local businesses globalise,” Mr Slogrove said…

Universities in the area fear they are already being disadvantaged, as education agents begin spruiking the new incentives and encouraging prospective students to look elsewhere.

*A similar situation is playing out across Australia’s major capitals. Living standards are being crush-loaded, residents want immigration to be cut, and yet the growth lobbyists continue to demand more migrants in order to line their pockets.

With Australia’s population projected to balloon by another 17.5 million people over the next 48 years, driven entirely by mass immigration:

And Australia’s major urban areas projected to balloon in size:

Liveability will destroyed coast-to-coast.

Cut immigration.

hundreds of houses from above

PHOTO: Around 600,000 people live on the Gold Coast. (Supplied: Google Earth)

SOURCE: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/population-ponzi-destroys-gold-coast-but-universities-demand-more/

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DAVID CROWE Wakes in FRIGHT to MIGRANT DYSTOPIA

FROM THE COMMENTS …

-how many open borders progressives will see the light? Maybe when they are in E.D. and joining the waiting list?

– the real question is what happens when housing really turns and those vibrants with huge mortgages are deep underwater and just scurry off back to India, Hong Kong, China e.g. what happened in Ireland

KEY POINTS …

-the exploitation of workers, legal and illegal, keeps prices down

there are no boats

YET exploited workers are all around us

wage growth collapses; the economy stagnates

as income accrues to only those few businesses and billionaires that are exposed to the endless arrival of warm bodies

-economic weakness drives interest rates lower and asset prices rise; hollowing out middle classes and dislocating young people

anger rises in the majority seeing living standards fall; politics begins to fragment as no party can gain polling traction opening the way for populists to rise

Q. WHAT did we get?

A. In Queensland preference deals the Coalition struck with One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia party.

WHY? Were those Queenslanders objecting to population growth deceived by the UAP and ON Spin about cutting Migration when they gave their preferences to the Liberal Party and its Visa Manipulation?

David Crowe wakes in fright to migrant dystopia

By Houses and Holes in Australian EconomyAustralian Politics

October 18, 2019 | 14 comments

*There are few greater proponents of the mass immigration economic model than David Crowe at Domain. At least, there were. He used to defend it at every turn. Produced ridiculous propaganda. And declared it was impossible to cut.


The Australian@australianTurnbull tackles population

PM may force migrants into bushA new population policy that could produce sweeping changes to keep new migrants in regional Australia and improve the co-ordination of infrastructure development to take account of growth trends is…theaustralian.com.au

*Not any more. Today Crowe finally saw what MB has seen for many years. That mass immigration has become nothing more than a wage crushing boondoggle for slave driving capital:

Neither church nor state can agree on Scott Morrison's draft religious laws

Imagine, for a moment, being a woman who comes to Australia on the promise of having a job as a cook and a visa for a new life.

Then imagine being told to work without pay for six months. Then being told to pay tens of thousands of dollars for that visa. Then being fired when you refuse to pay.

That is one example of the exploitation going on in this country against migrant workers who arrive with dreams and end up in chains. While the cook had a “temporary skill shortage” visa, she was totally exposed to the restaurant owner who treated her like an indentured labourer.

Once she refused to pay, she had only 60 days to find a new sponsor.

…”The conditions are shocking,” says Matthew Kunkel of the Migrant Workers Centre in Melbourne. “It’s not hyperbolic to say the conditions for some of these workers in Australia are like slavery.”

…It is easy to stoke fears about foreign workers or anxiety about asylum seekers. That is not what this column is about.

What, after all, is the threat? The exploitation of workers, legal and illegal, keeps prices down. And there are no boats. It is easy to turn a blind eye to this sort of problem.

Yet these exploited workers are all around us.

We don’t move without them keeping our cities working. We don’t eat without them getting food to our plates.

The Australian economy is now built on an entire strata of the workforce made up of cheap labour from overseas.

The Australian ideal is to build a nation with migrants who enter the workforce and have a pathway to permanent residency and citizenship.

When that ideal works, it makes Australia the best country in the world. But what if it fails?

*What if Australian society actually depends on illegal workers who have no pathway to citizenship and are only here until their luck runs out? They are temporary and disposable. No sick pay. No award rates. No options.

*We know what happens.

*Wage growth collapses and the economy stagnates as income accrues to only those few businesses and billionaires that are exposed to the endless arrival of warm bodies.

David Crowe’s employer, Domain, is a good example.

Economic weakness drives interest rates lower and asset prices rise, further hollowing out middle classes and dislocating young people. It’s all made worse by the great crush-loading of public services to which there is no answer because our institutions are simply not designed to cope with the pace of physical demand growth.

Anger rises in the majority, which is seeing living standards fall, politics begins to fragment as no party can gain polling traction and the way opens for populists to rise.

United Australia Party (UAP) leader Clive Palmer gestures during a media event at the Playford Hotel in Adelaide

Photograph: Kelly Barnes/AAP: Clive Palmer

Far-right One Nation Party leader Pauline Hanson

Getty Images

Welcome to the real Australia, Mr Crowe.

David Crowe wakes in fright to migrant dystopia

SOURCE: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/david-crowe-wakes-in-fright-to-migrant-dystopia/

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LABOR betrays Workers to support Wage-Crushing INDONESIAN FTA … WHY?

WHY? Not listening … why?

EVERYONE needs to make a lot more noise … can they not hear us over the … foreign donors … their lobbyists … employers …

Labor betrays workers to support wage-crushing Indonesian FTA

By Unconventional Economist in Australian Politics

October 17, 2019 | 15 comments

Labor’s caucus will shortly decide whether to support the federal government’s proposed free trade agreements (FTA) with Indonesia, Hong Kong and Peru.

Sources have indicated that Labor is unlikely to oppose the legislation.

Meanwhile, the ACTU is lobbying Labor MPs to oppose the bill, due to concerns about issues such as allowing thousands of Indonesians working rights. From The AFR:

Labor will hold a special caucus meeting at 8.30am Thursday to come to a position after shadow trade minister Madeleine King recommended to a committee of caucus on Wednesday that the party support the legislation… Senior party sources said Labor would not stand in the way of the trade deals that were negotiated by the Coalition

The ACTU, which fears the deals could allow the importation of foreign labour and for foreign companies to sue the Australian government, is actively lobbying MPs, both individually and in groups, to vote against the bills…

The unions also want mandatory labour market testing before foreign workers can be imported.

The ACTU’s Sally McManus is livid at Labor, posting the following on Facebook:

The ACTU claims that Labor has reneged on a deal made with the unions to protect Australian workers in FTAs:

Back in December 2018 the AMIEU and other Unions made a deal with the Labor Party that the conditions of Australian workers would be protected in all future trade agreements.

Labor was so embarrassed when we threatened to picket a Bill Shorten fundraising event they agreed to introduce better and fairer trade agreement legislation.

We expect Labor to honour the deal struck with the Union movement, but already they are showing signs of flopping.

Labor Parliamentarians MUST OPPOSE the Liberal Government’s new free trade agreements with Indonesia, Hong Kong and Peru.

These new trade agreements will increase the number of temporary visa workers in Australia, of which there are already 1.4 million. Visa workers are taken advantage of by multinational corporations and used to erode the wages and conditions of everyone.

Not only have these free trade agreements not been independently assessed, they do not require labour market testing and even allow multinationals to sue the Australian government if they aren’t making enough money.

The AMIEU has written to Federal Labor, Greens and Independent Parliamentarians to oppose the proposed free trade agreements. We urge these Parliamentarians to closely examine the new trade agreements to see just how they will disadvantage Australian workers.

Federal Labor Parliamentarians, if you aren’t going to fight for the workers you claim to represent, you aren’t fit for your job.

The ACTU is right.

The “Labor” Party no longer supports the working class, but rather inner-city social justice warriors and virtue signallers. They care more about identity politics than real issues that impact the working class.

That said, the ACTU is not adequately representing its working-class base either. While it whinges about FTAs, it remains a wholehearted supporter of Australia’s mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy, even signing a ‘Big Australia’ immigration compact with employer groups last year.

*This comes despite mass immigration being a key driver of inequality, since it raises the wealth of capitalists while driving down the wages of ordinary workers, and forces workers to live in smaller and more expensive housing.

Rather than focussing on tiny FTAs, unions need to push for root-and-branch immigration reform.

This should start with dramatically lowering the overall permanent migrant intake, as well as setting a wage floor for ‘skilled’ migrants at the 80th to 90th percentile of earnings, thus ensuring the scheme is used sparingly by employers on only the highest skilled migrants, not as a general labour market tool for accessing cheap foreign labour and eliminating the need for training.

SOURCE: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/labor-betrays-workers-to-support-wage-crushing-indonesian-fta/#comments

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Commuters sick of waiting for high-speed rail options

Such comparisons are wrong and are comparing apples with oranges
Sydney to Wollongong … is difficult terrain … the others mentioned are largely flat

Q Instead why doesn’t the government stop foreigners buying our domestic housing to increase supply available for genuine Australian buyers needing a home?

Q Perhaps it is the population growth that has contributed to the numbers queued up to get onto the trains … compounding the problem …

And necessitating more stops?

Q Why hasn’t the government introduced the next tranche of anti-money laundering legislation to cover the Real Estate Gatekeepers? OOOps … they were made EXEMPT in October 2018 … by the Scomo Guvmnt!

Q After spending billions on tollways that haven’t solved our commuting difficulties … why do we have to wait to hear from experts to tell us what we already know?

Q How do we ever get ahead of these issues while we are growing our population largely by immigration at far higher rates than can be accommodated?

PERHAPS the Western Sydney rail lines could be looked at … the carriages are packed to the gills! Most standing!

MEANWHILE the Public/Private Scheme is hurtling down the track … that’s what is happening and to hell with the consequences!

Commuters sick of waiting for high-speed rail options

ABC Illawarra By Nick McLaren

14 OCTOBER 2019

Wollongong resident Harris Cheung commutes to Sydney by rail

PHOTO: A return train trip and work in Sydney for Wollongong resident Harris Cheung takes up to 14 hours out of his day. (Justin Huntsdale, ABC Illawarra)

EXTERNAL LINK: Use the Australia Talks interactive tool to see how Australians really think

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While most of his neighbours are still sleeping in a suburb south of Wollongong, Harris Cheung is out of bed, preparing for the almost two-hour commute ahead of him.

The train he will catch to work in Sydney takes an hour-and-a-half — the same time it took to travel the route on a steam train in the 1930s.

Mr Cheung moved to Wollongong for family reasons. He hoped the spectacular beaches of the Illawarra would make for a better life.

Instead, he spends up to 14 hours a day working and commuting to bustling North Sydney.

The daily grind

The Australia Talks National Survey found:

  • One in three working Australians say their commute is too long
  • That rises to 40 per cent among Australians with a culturally-diverse background
  • One in three people in the Illawarra federal electorate, Cunningham, say they’d be happier if they spent less time commuting

Use the ABC’s interactive tool to see how you compare on this and other issues.

“It would make life a lot easier if the train trip between Wollongong and Central is less than an hour, which I think is quite doable,” he told the ABC.

Around 35,000 Illawarra residents commute outside the region for work each day, with around 26,000 heading to Sydney, the vast majority making the trip in a private vehicle.

With an average speed of 57 kilometres per hour, the train from Wollongong to Sydney is a slog. The Perth to Mandurah line, by contrast, has an average speed of 85 kilometres per hour, according to transport expert Associate Professor Phillip Laird from the University of Wollongong.Follow this story to get email or text alerts from ABC News when there is a future article following this storyline.Follow this story

Transport the missing link

As more Australians decide to commute daily from locations like the Gold Coast to Brisbane, Geelong to Melbourne, or the Blue Mountains or Central Coast to Sydney, they are finding transport can be a deal breaker.

The Illawarra’s local business chamber has found the Wollongong commute rates poorly against these comparable trips.

Despite promised improvements like new carriages with more room, Mr Cheung remains unimpressed.

How do you compare?

How do you compare?

We asked 54,000 people about their lives. See what they told us — and how you compare.

“You can have the best trains in the world but if it is as slow as it is now, it doesn’t make any sense at all,” he said.

A recent poll by IRIS Research has found more city dwellers would move to outer suburban and regional areas if strong transport links such as fast rail were in place.

Professor David Henscher from the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies said their latest survey asked about the attraction of a one-hour commute.

“There is always this trade-off between housing affordability, residential location and, of course, jobs,” he said.

“And one of the things we are promoting is not just relocating due to improved rail systems and having to commute back, there is also the real possibility of having some decentralised jobs because industry is more prepared to relocate under those conditions.”

He said in locations close to a major city, speeding up trains to 100 or 150 kilometres per hour would be enough to get the job done.

Wollongong Railway Station

PHOTO: Wollongong railway station, to the west of the CBD. (ABC Illawarra: Nick McLaren)

Solutions a long way away

NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance said a 35 per cent jump in train usage from locations south of Sydney over recent years shows government transport plans are working.

But the long-anticipated wait for new rail alignments or expensive tunnels that would make a real difference to commute times is ongoing.

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“We have a global leading expert in Dr Andrew McNaughton who is looking at fast trains through the Illawarra and down to Nowra and part of that is looking at the alignment of the tracks,” he said.

“We have engaged the best person in the world to give that advice, his report is due by the end of the year and we will go from there.”

The process could stretch out a long way into the future — too long for Mr Cheung.

While he has considered working closer to home, the options in his profession are very limited.

“Every week I check job ads and things like that, in the area of my career,” he said.

“There are maybe five in a year that I could apply for [in Wollongong] but in Sydney there’s five every day.”

The Australia Talks National Survey asked 54,000 Australians about their lives and what keeps them up at night. Use our interactive tool to see the results and how their answers compare with yours.

Then, tune in at 8.30pm on November 18, as the ABC hosts a live TV event with some of Australia’s best-loved celebrities exploring the key findings of the Australia Talks National Survey

SOURCE: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-14/australia-talks-commuters-sick-of-waiting-for-high-speed-rail/11594272

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DROUGHT STRICKEN TAMWORTH TO GET A NEW DAM FOR 40,000 MORE PEOPLE

Drought stricken Tamworth gets new dam for 40,000 new migrants

The local Mayor  believes that a growing population is needed to solve Tamworth’s water crisis …

“I have absolutely got no concerns that there’ll be water for the future, providing we have got the plan and got the population growth to strengthen it.”

You cannot make this stuff up. Tamworth already has major concerns with water security

AND severe water restrictions in place.

But somehow we are not to worry about the extra demand that would come from 40,000 (60%) more people,

-especially in light of climate change; which is expected to lower rainfall and increase evaporation

Drought stricken Tamworth gets new dam for 40,000 new migrants

By Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy

October 14, 2019 | 17 comments

The NSW regional city of Tamworth is currently facing Stage 4 water restrictions, with the Chaffey Dam at just 18.9% capacity after experiencing record low inflows:

The Peel Valley region is also predicted to run out of water by June 2020 unless there is significant rain fall.

Not to worry. The NSW and Federal Governments have just approved the construction of a new $480 million dam near Tamworth:

Water levels are decreasing across the state, including at Warragamba Dam. Picture: Toby Zerna

Water levels are decreasing across the state, including at Warragamba Dam. Picture: Toby Zerna

After weeks of speculation about a new dam to secure the long-term survival of country towns and farmers, The Sunday Telegraph can reveal a new reservoir will be built at Dungowan, near Tamworth…

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said dams weren’t built overnight but “we’re working as quickly as possible”…

The new Dungowan Dam above Tamworth will be worth $480 million and will secure long-term water supply for 62,000 district residents and farms in the Peel Valley, which is expected to run out of water by June without significant rainfall or intervention.

The new Dungowan Dam will be more than three-and-a-half times the size of the ­existing dam, which will be knocked down once the ­replacement is built downstream. It will be the first new dam in NSW since Split Rock dam was built near Tamworth in 1987.

Obviously, it may take several years to build the dam and several more years to fill it (assuming above average rainfall). There’s also the problem of Tamworth’s growing population.

Tamworth’s authorities are determined to lift the region’s population from 62,000 currently to over 100,000 as quickly as possible:

At this rate it will take Tamworth until about 2073 to reach the 100,000 population target.

The local government area grew by just under 1 per cent from 2017 to 2018, Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows. Tamworth Regional Council has an ambitious plan to shave at least three decades off that.

“We need to increase the growth rate to a bit over 2 per cent,” acting mayor Phil Betts said. “It is an ambitious target but it’s possible…”.

Tamworth Mayor Col Murray also believes that a growing population is needed to solve Tamworth’s water crisis:

Mayor Col Murray

While water is a major concern for the city presently, the mayor said a growing city would demand government investment in a greater security.

“I would argue we have got no chance of increasing our water security without having population growth,” [Mayor Col Murray] said.

“That’ll force it to happen.

“I have absolutely got no concerns that there’ll be water for the future, providing we have got the plan and got the population growth to strengthen it.”

You cannot make this stuff up. Tamworth already has major concerns with water security – hence the severe water restrictions in place. But somehow we are not to worry about the extra demand that would come from 40,000 (60%) more people, especially in light of climate change, which is expected to lower rainfall and increase evaporation?

Remember, Tamworth is located far away from the ocean, meaning that water desalination is not available.

Water scarcity remains the elephant in the room of the population debate, and the key issue that ‘Big Australia’ boosters deliberately ignore, including Tamworth Mayor Col Murray.

SOURCE: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/drought-stricken-tamworth-to-get-new-dam-for-40000-new-migrants/

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GRATTAN INSTITUTE’s CONGESTION CHARGE PUSH IGNORES THE ‘ELEPHANT’

Grattan’s congestion charging push ignores immigration elephant



in the Room … the Grattan … has overlooked the 2 X City populations each hurtling towards TEN MILLION …

AND just to add to the joy of living in …

Sydney … another charge … another fee … this TAX will give people less choice, especially those living in outer Western suburbs. They will simply pay more for less amenity, as they have experienced with the proliferation of toll roads.

P.S. we know of people who live in the outer Western Suburbs and have to commute … on the Motorways … from early in the Morning … to work in the Eastern Suburbs! That will be even more costly!

Grattan’s congestion charging push ignores immigration elephant

By Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy

October 14, 2019 |comments

After last year claiming that commute times and congestion across Australia’s cities has not worsened (see here and here), the Grattan Institute’s Marion Terrill has demanded that Australia’s governments implement congestion charging to alleviate congestion pressures and prevent our cities from grinding to a standstill:

‘Australia’s capital cities should join many of the great cities of the world by charging drivers who use the busiest roads at the busiest times.

We recommend a three-stage reform: within the next five years, state governments should introduce cordon charging, where drivers pay to cross a boundary into the capital city CBDs in the morning peak and out in the afternoon peak; within the following five years, people should pay to drive along the busiest urban freeways and arterial roads at peak periods; and eventually people should be charged on a per-kilometre basis for driving across the city’s entire road network at the busiest times.

A modest cordon charge could mean 40 per cent fewer cars entering the CBDs in the morning peak, and speeds up to 16 per cent faster on roads in the CBD and up to 20 per cent faster on sections of major arterials leading into the CBD.

Modelling shows speeds across the entire Sydney and Melbourne road networks would increase by about 1 per cent. That might sound modest, but Sydney’s WestConnex and Melbourne’s North East Link are predicted to increase network speeds by 3 per cent and 1 per cent respectively – and those roads come with price tags of $16 billion and $17 billion respectively.

Everyone wants less congestion: it would make life easier for individual drivers and make our cities work better, too. This plan tackles congestion without asking communities to pay billions of dollars for major new roads.

New York, London, Beijing, Singapore, Stockholm, Milan, and Jakarta all have congestion charging or are heading that way. It’s time for Australian cities to embrace the idea.

If getting public transport right is a pre-condition for congestion charging, there has never been a better time in Australia, with investment in public transport and roads running at more than $30 billion in 2018-19 – an all-time high.

The technology has improved too, with Automatic Number Plate Recognition now accurate enough to use as the primary detection technology for congestion charging.

And the experience from global cities is that initial public hostility quickly turns to support when people see how effective congestion charging can be.

Concerns that congestion charging would hurt those who can least afford it are overblown. In fact the charges would mainly be paid by higher-income drivers, because people who drive to the city each day for work are more than twice as likely to earn a six-figure salary as other workers.

It’s also a myth that lower-income workers drive further. In fact it is typically higher-income workers who drive long distances to work.

Nor is it true that people have no choice but to drive; CBDs are well-serviced by public transport, and most people already get to the city by train, tram, or bus.

In the end, if particular roads are in high demand, it’s fairer that people who use them a lot pay more than those who rarely or never use them.

But congestion charging should come with a safety net: there should be discounts for low-income people with impaired mobility who need to get to the CBD in peak periods.

I agree with Grattan’s arguments about the need to shift towards direct road pricing, since it would encourage people to take non-essential trips at a different time (or not at all), thus improving efficiency through better managing congestion.

I also believe that direct road user charges are inevitable as revenue from fuel excise continues to collapse, brought about by the shift to both more efficient conventional vehicles as well as electric vehicles:

That said, congestion charging won’t magically create more road space to cater for Melbourne’s and Sydney’s ballooning populations, which are projected to roughly double to around 10 million people over the next 48 years:

*Nor will congestion charging magically fix Melbourne’s and Sydney’s chronically congested and deficient public transport networks.

All congestion charging will do is give people less choice, especially those living in outer suburban areas like the Western suburbs. They will simply pay more for less amenity, as they have experienced with the proliferation of toll roads.

If you don’t believe me, here’s Infrastructure Australia’s projections for Sydney and Melbourne, where congestion is projected to soar and access to jobs, schools, hospitals and open space will all decline by 2046, irrespective of how these cities build-out to cope with populations of 7.4 million and 7.3 million people respectively:

Thus, congestion charging is like placing a band-aid on a gaping wound.

Clearly, the simplest and best solution to mitigate the liveability problems afflicting our major cities is to slash immigration back to historical levels (see next chart) and prevent the pressures from building in the first place.

Grattan cannot possibly hope to ameliorate the many problems caused by excessive population growth while endorsing net overseas migration running at more than triple the historical average.

major road with cars

SOURCE: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/grattans-congestion-charging-push-ignores-immigration-elephant/

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