Alicia Barry Interview with Louis Christopher SQM Housing Boom and Bust Report

THE FOLLOWING was discussed in this interview:

“NAB chief executive Ross McEwan has also called for more action from APRA, and when you have

someone in that position to call for further tightening, generally speaking, it’s already in the planning

stage.

“Put it this way, if the Australian housing market does not slow down by mid-2022, APRA will keep intervening until it does. We cannot afford another year of 20 per cent plus gains across the national housing market.”

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/housing-boom-poised-to-end-in-2022-but-not-in-brisbane-20211124-p59blj

Key Points …

-a lot of money spinning around the economy; a lot into housing pushing up prices

-Sydney and Melbourne significantly over-valued;  the most over-valued ever seen!

.with significant risks

-the financial regulators: the RBA and APRA acted in early November

-and will step in again to avoid a hard landing in our housing market

the risks are the massive gaps between prices and income  *

-in Sydney only 15 suburbs with a median house price under $1M; extraordinarily over-valued

if this market continues to rise anor 20% in 2022; likely we will have a hard landing

-likely regulators will step in again until the evidence is there the market is slowing down

inflation at 3%;  thought to rise another half a percent  to 3.5%

-regulators to focus on investors through multiple steps

-with house prices out of control it will force a hard landing that affects the rest of the economy

.expect regulators will target the rate of growth

.less owner buyers in the market

FHBs not seen since mid year

investors now taking up the larger proportion of the buying activity

a typical phenomenon we see towards the end of a housing cycle

2022 expect an increase in demand for units; because they are more affordable

-international borders opening to overseas students and migrants who traditionally invest in units

-with lockdowns assumed to be over many will return to the big cities from the regions seeking more amenity in the cities

-6 to 8 months after the downturn started a good call for FHBs

-SQM not in a position to tell people when they should buy their home

-belief that the market will soften next year; not going to crash

-that the regulators will stop the crash if they can

CAAN: Sadly with our borders opening up for migrants and international students this will increase competition once again for Australian home buyers! And in the jobs market maintaining low wages!

ASK WHO IS ON YOUR SIDE?

WATCH!

WHY are some Sydney Suburbs more liveable than others? 

WHY have some Sydney suburbs become less liveable and others more so?

PERHAPS why some in Western Sydney rate where they live with a liveability score of 64 … 4 points below the national average of 68 …

… because this stems back to the fact that much of Western Sydney was developed much later than the Eastern and North Shore suburbs?

WHY was the infrastructure not developed prior or simultaneously with the new subdivisions?  Did the deve-lopers get off Scot-free?

PERHAPS through political donations deve-lopers have gotten away with so much?

THE established burbs have public transport, ready access to health facilities, schools,

shopping centres, parks, gardens, kerb and guttering …

Lane Cove Council and not specifically Lane Cove scored 76 for sustainable urban design? Lane Cove itself has streets of high density with problems of waste collection; with cars parking out those streets. Cars are damaged with tight parking and falling branches! The housing market is expensive as are rents!  It has the amenity of a shopping centre, a library, schools, sewerage, a motorway, a bus service

A commentator wrote that he grew up in Balmoral Beach in the 60s and compared it with that of today with its ‘Super rich’ residents; choked with traffic and people; parking police collecting revenue, and the loss of its community!

SOME COUNCILS like RYDE have a ‘Street Tree Planting Program’!  And invite residents to participate! 

PERHAPS other Councils are also involved … and your Burb can look leafy like Hunters Hill … Wahroonga … Pymble … Turramurra … too?

DESPITE the efforts of ‘progressive Mayors’ to tackle the heat sinks, and urban crush …

the learner Premier Major Dom proposes 400,000 more immigrants per annum for five years ffs!

WHERE is it proposed that they live? The Planning Department ‘Central City’ of Parramatta, The Hills, Cumberland and Blacktown Council Areas to deliver 40% extra housing over the next five years!  60 Kms from the coast and the CBD with more apartment blocks and urban heat islands!

AND ANOTHER DEVE-LOPER HOUSING BOOM!

WESTERN SYDNEYSIDERS need protect what they have … the Nurrangingy Reserve and the Wianamatta Regional Park (the last of the Cumberland Plain bushland) and the nearby Blue Mountains

PARRAMATTA has its theatres, parks, University, and nightlife.

PENRITH/Jamisontown with family activities incl kayaking, skating rink, bowling, sports, the river, nature and the Joan Theatre …

The Eastern Suburbs beaches have their issues of storm/sewage runoff, traffic, parking, parking fines, gridlock.  The Inner West with air traffic noise …

IT’s time to vote the donor recipients out!  Because Sydney was nice back in the 80s until the late 1990s before ‘the vandals and their crush took over’!

Opportunities now arising for change with imminent Local Government elections, and in 2022 for State and Federal Governments!

READ MORE!

https://www.smh.com.au/national/sydney-s-most-liveable-suburbs-and-where-residents-are-least-happy-20211118-p59a15.html#comments

LOW WAGES since 2013 … Yet Bankers Predict House Price Hike for 2022!

WHY?

It’s rigged, isn’t it?  A Sellers Market, and set to benefit Investors, Foreign Buyers, Money Launderers and especially apartment deve-lopers …

With house prices in Sydney, Canberra, Hobart and some regional areas shooting up by more than 30% in 2021 … let that sink in …

A recent study by the McKell Institute found:

The average Australian worker would be earning $254 more a week if wages growth had continued at the rate achieved under the last Labor government, according to a new analysis.’

Since the Liberal Coalition Government gained power in 2013 wages have grown 2.5% compared to 4.6%  in 2007 to 2013 with the Labor Government.

Average weekly earnings for men would be $310 higher if the average rate of wage growth from 2007 to 2013 had been sustained since 2014 to 2020!

And women would be earning $152.23 more a week!  Why were our wages suppressed?  This study blames a suite of Liberal Coalition policies including the public sector pay freezes, an increase in Visas for temporary migrant workers, inaction on wage theft, the GIG economy, and this government failed to press the Fair Work Commission for bigger minimum wage increases

Read more!

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/23/wage-growth-slowdown-under-coalition-costs-average-worker-254-a-week-study-finds

First Home Buyers who did not have the ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ were locked out in 2021.

HOW can they save more than 80% of their annual wages for a deposit?

Where are the ‘cheaper rents’?  Say less than $420 per week?  That is $1640 per month … 

WHAT is left to get over the deposit hurdle and prices skyrocketing … ?

YET the ANZ predicts that house prices are to continue to rise by a little more than 6% in 2022 prior to falling some 4% in 2023 …

WT ##

HOUSING IS UNAFFORDABLE IN 2021 …

AS the real estate go-between persists pushing up house prices … to the liking of vendors and the bankers …

IT is reported that more homes are coming to market, and a rise in fixed mortgage rates and a slight reduction in maximum borrowing may slow this down … ?

The RBA wages growth forecast of a mere 3% by end 2023 … half that of the additional 6% house price rise and …

IF house prices fall 4% as ANZ predicts by the end 2023 housing would be 27% more expensive than at the end of 2019! 

WESTPAC’s senior economist predicts an 8% house price rise for 2022 with wage growth of 3% …

IT appears that the Morrison Government First Home Buyer schemes were created to boost the demand, and fill the coffers of apartment deve-lopers as these schemes cut out at $800,000 in Sydney.  The Sydney median house price is now $1,499,126!

Read more!

The hope for more listings in 2022 to outstrip demand from buyers appears to be dashed with the Perrottet Government ‘Plan’ to bring back International Students

“This is a significant milestone in our roadmap to recovery and I can’t wait to welcome back such an important part of our community,” Mr Perrottet said.

AND the Morrison Government post-COVID economic recovery plan includes the return of skilled migrants.

“We are going to have a business led recovery here in Australia.”

Read more!

https://www.msn.com/en-AU/news/australia/international-students-to-return-to-nsw-quarantine-free/ar-AAQDORP?ocid=sapphireappshare

The solution would appear to be with the Constituency in 2022 … Meanwhile have a chat with others about the FACTS shared in this report!

How the Big 4 Consultants hold Sway over Voters through our Governments!

An excellent report from Crispin Hull! 

 We recommend you Share with others, and copy for your information!

Key Points …

-Josh Frydenberg was considering increasing immigration; the ACCI called for skilled migrant intake to 200,000

-business wants this for a pool of cheap labour; weakens workers bargaining power

-Australia does not have a skills shortage but a training shortage

-most jobs on the skilled shortage list are jobs like ‘chef’ not ‘rocket scientist’

The Furphy …

  1. it would take a crush load of migrants under 40 to impact the age profile
  2. those immigrants age too
  3. appalling insult that people aged over 65 are a drain

-a lot of alarmist drivel about lower population and therefore lower GDP

-with lower GDP shared among fewer people everyone will be better off

-better to be richer in a small economy than poorer in a larger one!

-why do pollies listen to business? Because the public service has been eroded; replaced with policy advice from big consultants

-the Greens promise to build a million ‘affordable’ homes despite the environmental cost

-a housing crisis in Australia due to a tax policy which favours investment in homes; squeezing out home buyers

READ AND SHARE THE FULL REPORT!

‘Back to rotten politics as usual’

http://www.crispinhull.com.au/2021/10/22/back-to-rotten-politics-as-usual/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=crispin-hull-column-16-nov-2019_99

Can MultiCulturalism be a Tool to Manipulate Candidacy

CONTRARY to the 7.30 Report this evening, 27 September 2021 …

‘Senior Labor Party members in Fowler are furious about an outside candidate being “parachuted” into their electorate – but it’s not former premier KRISTINA KENEALLY …… because MS LE only moved into the electorate last year and still works outside it, the Herald can reveal.’

WHY didn’t 7.30 do more research on this matter? Perhaps it is beyond the management and 7.30 Journalists, and the question should be directed to those who pull the strings!

SHAME!

Because this SMH article was published on 26 September at 5.00 a.m. a day earlier than the 7.30 Report!

Is Multiculturalism all that it is cut out to be because it appears to cause more problems … with negative reports like tonight on 7.30 – it appears to be divisive and corrosive … and it seems it can be manipulated!

WHY not be ‘AUSTRALIAN’?

AS Australians we collectively have been manipulated particularly by the property sector for their gain

We AUSTRALIANS have lost much of our Colonial and Indigenous heritage, society, community, and environment – through OVERDEVELOPMENT of high density housing to accommodate their new and additional overseas buyers!

We had no say in this … no doubt due to political donations esp. to the LNP!

Migrants having come here in vast numbers in such a short time period, particularly since 2013 it appears, this too is being manipulated with demands for greater representation in our Parliaments … through reports like this on 7.30: 27 September 2021: ‘Parliament does not reflect culturally diverse Australia, says former Fowler hopeful Tu Le’ 7.30

Is Ms Le the ideal candidate, in any case, as it appears she is putting her personal ambition over and above her Party loyalty?

READ MORE!

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/also-a-parachuter-claims-that-candidate-who-missed-out-to-keneally-was-also-a-blow-in-20210923-p58ubj.html

Perrottet Plan to bring back International Students by end 2021

TREASURER Perrottet under the cover of Covid has been working on a plan to bring back international students.  He alleges ‘tens of thousands of people in NSW rely on the international student market for work’

AND that this would ‘also address the rising issue of labour shortages in the state’.   

JUST as the high unemployment and underemployment for Australians was beginning to turn around ….

CONTRARY to Perrottet we read a report that Australian job postings had rebounded to 17 September 2021 at 48.6% above their level on 1 February 2020, and are 1.9% below their peak!

So what now!~  FFS!

This alleged ‘rising issue of labour shortages’ has had nothing to do with businesses wanting to maintain low wages and long hours of slavery these overseas students were willing to undertake to gain a Permanent Resident Visa …

The Indian market of 1.3 Billion people happens to be one of the NSW Government’s top priorities, and despite ScOmO’s war on China Perrottet has been working on a strategy to bring back students from China and Nepal.

Commentators question what is being done to manage the transition of local students from high school to university?

And why are our Universities not adequately funded?  That places should be allocated for Australian students

And question why our Universities too are being treated like a business corporation

READ MORE!

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/international-students-to-return-to-nsw-by-the-end-of-the-year-20210923-p58u93.html#comments

Campsie under Lockdown faced with Density Push!

‘A COVID-19-struck community with severely limited open space has been asked to review a plan to increase the number of homes by more than 70 per cent while enduring the strictest lockdown the city has seen.’

Mayor Khal Asfour:

‘As Mayor, I am dedicated to building stronger ties between Council and the community; …   I intend to continue to lead the advocacy on important matters, such as sustainable development and infrastructure support, to make our City an even better place to live, work in and enjoy. ‘​

https://www.cbcity.nsw.gov.au/council/mayor-councillors/councillor-khal-asfour

HOW are these fine words reflected in what is proposed for Campsie? 

WHEN Campsie residents are faced with a density increase from 24,500 to almost 40,000 dwellings by 2036

With little increase in public space under a Masterplan that will be put to a planning panel in a week’s time in a blueprint:

-allegedly to make Campsie more environmentally sustainable, affordable and connected to the Cooks River

-Beirut’s 2021 population is now estimated at 2,434,609

https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/beirut-population

Sydney’s 2021 population is now estimated at 4,991,654. In 1950, the population of Sydney was 1,689,935.

Greater Sydney population

In 2019 the Estimated Resident Population for Greater Sydney was 5,312,163.

As with the established pattern of NSW INC residents were only given days’ notice to provide feedback on the draft at the same time as outdoor recreation is heavily policed, and children limited to playing at the front of apartment blocks, and in driveways!

Campsie is already overcrowded with the Council having to resort to the Belmore Sports Ground to account for a third of the open space in the plan!

It is proposed to upgrade existing parks, create small pockets of open space and improve street amenity.

Will the river foreshore escape redevelopment?

Campsie will remain stuck with the overhead high-tension power lines as their removal is not a given.

ICAC previously investigated attempts by Daryl Maguire to increase the height of buildings for a developer friend, and NSW government’s 2017 plan for Campsie was shelved following community backlash.

So under the Cover of Covid, it appears, that NSW INC and the Council are proposing this huge redevelopment knowing full well that the community is too stretched to cope with this!

Canterbury MP Sophie Cotsis said:

“I’ve made representations to the council and the NSW Planning Minister to withdraw this proposal, which will have a significant, adverse impact on residents and their properties.”

Contrary to the council spokeswoman a pattern has been established under the Cover of Covid with the push for high immigration, and increased development already underway!  And to fill the carriages of the Metro

-from Singapore … China … India …

There is a disconnect with Australian home buyers currently faced with a housing shortage, and priced out of their communities!

Since 2012 thousands of alleged sets of engagement and community consultations have proved meaningless for many Sydney communities.  Especially when one hears the buzzwords :  ‘ …. To become a strategic centre, a cultural and lifestyle centre’

Read more!

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/campsie-residents-feel-the-pain-over-their-locked-down-suburb-s-density-push-20210903-p58ofs.html#comments

Chinese Buyers enjoy Bonza Buy of Australia’s Farmlands!

CHINESE Buyers enjoy Bonza Buy of Australia’s Farmlands … we read this report, ‘’China-Australia relations: Chinese buyers defy Beijing-Canberra blues to say ‘Bonza’ to farmland Down Under“, and it raised many questions for us! We hope you will think about what we question, and share with others!

WITH the diminishing availability of Australia’s farmland, and with it increasingly becoming a popular asset class for Chinese, are we missing something here? Why the disconnect?

WHY aren’t Australian investors ensuring the wealth of Our Nation by investing in this very valuable resource with a very large demand for our produce coming from a hungry 1.4 Billion Chinese?

IT appears we are losing this resource on two fronts from the PRC!  …

With the property sector encouraged, and allowed to devour this precious resource through urban sprawl?

WHEN it is contrary to the interests of not only Our Farmers, but Our Nation and future generations!

WITH the diminishing availability of Our Farmlands, why does the FIRB allow the sell-off to foreign buyers particularly China?

HOW credible are the ‘frosty relations between Canberra and Beijing?” 

WHERE are the so-called restrictions on these foreign investments in our most valuable resources?

.yet China’s investment only fell by more than a third to $827.6M in 2020

HOW is it alleged that Chinese investment in Australian farmlands benefits our Nation? 

When Australia has lost ownership?  Agricultural lands account for 11% of our exports.  How much of that 11% is now owned by the Chinese?

WITHOUT the need for government approval for buying Australia’s property valued less than A$15M, is it any wonder that Chinese investors have the largest holding of 9.2 million hectares?

. also cover investment in vehicles or funds that buy stakes in agricultural lands

WHY not hold onto Australia’s farmlands for our farmers to sell produce to China’s fast-growing Mainland market?

BECAUSE China’s demand for these imported commodities and refined agricultural products will only grow! Currently China accounts for some 18% of Australia’s farming exports!

WHY isn’t the Morrison Government ensuring the viability of our Farming Sector? So that our Farmers are not forced to sell out!

HOW dumb are we?

READ MORE!

‘’China-Australia relations: Chinese buyers defy Beijing-Canberra blues to say ‘Bonza’ to farmland Down Under

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/china-australia-relations-chinese-buyers-defy-beijing-canberra-blues-say-bonza-farmland-down-under?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=pmd_8r9gzm5ifWqRf0JGsSdlZnhoOqD0YzJnSiuYY5Ddrd4-1630469360-0-gqNtZGzNA3ujcnBszQc9

What happened while we’ve been distracted by incessant Covid Media?

Despite the Delta variant wreaking havoc, the majority of our key workforce of 16 to 39 year olds, and our children have not been vaccinated …

Qantas has now revealed it has had a seat at the table with Sc.mmo, and is calibrating for reopening international borders not only to benefit Qantas, but because the property titans want the return of international migration, tourists, students and Visa workers … many seeking Permanent Residency …

… also at the Table, Housing Industry Association economist, Angela LilliCRAP (we didn’t make this up!)  said population growth was pivotal for housing and the construction consortia.  

KEY POINTS!

-Qantarse has revealed its mapping for reopening our borders

-the property industry awaits full return of migration, tourists, students and workers

-in the next 18 months flights to and from Singapore, Japan, the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Fiji and possibly NZ from mid December and to Hong Kong in February

-in April Bali, Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok, Phuket, Ho Chi Minh City and Johannesburg

-the HIA economist Angela Lillicrap said population growth was key to the home building industry

population growth was said to be stagnant at 0.5% with an increase of 136,300 in 2020 … not 70,000 but 136,300  (ABS)

READ MORE!

Qantas Reveals Roadmap for Return of Migration

20 Year Rezoning Strategy for Frenchs Forest

Frenchs ForestAllambie Heights … forever changed by NSW INC Rezoning …

This project has been ongoing for some time now, and evidently revised further during COVID. Rezoning Frenchs Forest and releasing a draft place strategy. 

In the process sadly many lost their homes, and/or amenity and their community rights through the rezoning.

The government has released a draft place strategy that calls for a new town centre created around the relocated school, 1,000 new homes and 1.5 hectares of new public open space.

15 percent ‘affordable housing’ an improvement of 5 percent!

GEE!

New homes in apartment blocks up to 12 storeys, townhouses and terraces.

Another 1000 homes for surrounding ‘transition areas’ …

Meanwhile through onshore proxies and Juwai, overseas buyers too can gain benefits and buy Australian real estate if they are an:

‘Australian permanent resident’, a ‘foreign citizen living in Australia or outside Australia’!

It would seem this is why where we have lived has forever changed!

Much higher density and smaller ‘homes’for heap$ more!

And back in October 2018 Scomo’s guvmnt exempted the real estate gatekeepers from the Anti-money Laundering Laws … so this folks – ‘hot money’ – is what we are up against … side deals too … and this perhaps explains why house prices continue to escalate!

READ MORE!

https://architectureau.com/articles/new-20-year-vision-for-norther-sydney-suburb/?fbclid=IwAR3YlhrKJG6w0QHOHPBnyA11bYj5wyH4zRe_uCmFaOtAB0XT5_51p2r1qxU