KEY POINTS …
–bulldozing middle-ring suburbs for apartments and townhouses to house many millions of extra migrants
.leaving millions of dwellings behind from whence they came
–Urban Taskforce projects only one quarter of dwellings will be detached houses in 2057; down from 55% currently
-Australian cities becoming concrete jungles as trees and canopy disappear contributing to an urban ‘heat island’ effect
–eroding all markers of liveability the urban infill utopia causing increased heat-related deaths
THE CONSEQUENCE HIGH CO2 EMISSIONS … CHINA HAS THE HIGHEST EMISSIONS WITH ITS HIGH-RISE URBANISATION
Urban planner infill dystopia bakes us under concrete
For years, the development industry and urban planners have called for Australia’s supposedly underutilised middle-ring suburbs to be bulldozed for apartments and townhouses in order to house the many millions of extra migrants projected to inundate our cities over coming decades:
This transformation into a dense urban form is to be most stark in Sydney, where the Urban Taskforce projects that only one quarter of dwellings will be detached houses in 2057, down significantly from 55% currently:
This transformation will obviously also see reduced access to green space, according to Infrastructure Australia’s modelling, as Melbourne’s and Sydney’s populations balloon to a projected 7.3 million and 7.4 million people by 2046 (see last row below):
An issue conveniently ignored by these planning geniuses is that in addition to eroding all markers of liveability (see above), their urban infill utopia will also make our cities hotter, causing increased heat-related deaths.
With canopy coverage declining across almost every city, researchers have begun sounding the alarm:
Australian cities are increasingly becoming concrete jungles as trees and canopy coverage disappear, according to experts who warn this is contributing to an urban “heat island” effect…
It has estimated this can create on-ground temperatures as high as 55 degrees in the sun.
Compounding the issue, a 2017 report by the group, titled Where Should All The Trees Go, found canopy coverage in urban areas had declined in almost every state and territory…
Dr Tony Matthews – a senior lecturer in urban and environmental planning at Griffith University – has been at the forefront, explicitly warning that infill development is driving the heat-island problem:
Brisbane’s older suburbs are more likely to have green spaces and leafy tree cover, cooling streets and homes.CREDIT:AAP
“Heat stress actually causes more deaths in Australia than all of the other natural disasters combined”…
Middle-ring suburbs were more likely to be the leafy, cool retreats created by postwar architecture and planting…
“The real problem comes when we try and increase densities, which we have done in a suburban context through a quality called urban consolidation,” he said.
“And that has been taken up through most of the capital cities, all of the capital cities, in fact.
“It’s squeezing more floorspace out of less land, so that’s why we’re seeing so many apartments, so many townhouses, we’re also seeing a reduction in block sizes from maybe 700 metres or 650 metres to 400 metres.”
Squeezing more properties onto land means there is less room for parks, trees, or anything other than constructed buildings, he said.
The result is dense, urban fringe suburbs with little greenery and houses with no gardens, parks reduced in size as competition for tenancy grows…
“What I feel we have done with these suburbs is we have locked them into a pattern of heat stress, limited outdoor activity, limited use of the public realm, and all of the problems that come with that because they’re not green enough and in some cases they don’t have the potential to be any greener,” Dr Matthews said.
Earier this week, Matthews was among a group of experts that appeared on ABC Radio National to sound the alarm:
Urban and environmental planner Tony Matthews says between 2008 and 2017, Australia’s major metropolitan areas cumulatively lost 2.6 per cent of their vegetation — which adds up to an area larger than Brisbane.
Fewer trees — combined with more hard surfaces like roads, pavements, and rooftops — can create an urban “heat island” effect… “Cities become artificially hotter” …
Dr Mellick Lopes, an expert in design, says rapid development and population growth in Western Sydney has seen trees lost from suburbs, including many lower socio-economic areas…
The infill utopia of jamming millions more people into the existing urban footprint will necessarily chew-up green space as backyards, trees and open space are removed to make way for additional dwellings. And this will necessarily exacerbate the ‘heat island’ effect afflicting our cities, in turn raising energy use (think air conditioners).
Clearly, maintaining green infrastructure in our major cities is not consistent with the projected explosion of their populations via mass immigration, along with planning rules that force increased population density.
The first best solution to this problem is to slash immigration back toward the historical average, thereby slowing the destruction of green space:
Stop treating symptoms and address the problem at its source.
Leith Van OnselenLeith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
CAAN Photo: A case in point with concrete rendered duplex allowing for little yard; nextdoor a post-war cottage with shrubs and trees in a garden