BUDGET RELYING ON OVERESTIMATED POPULATION GROWTH FIGURES … LEADING EXPERT SAYS

DESPITE Prof. McDonald’s belief the ABS has released the number of permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia hit another record high.

In the year to May 2019, there were a record 848,570 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia, up 6% from May 2018, and only partly offset by 554,140 permanent and long-term departures.

Subtracting departures from arrivals, there were 294,430 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to May 2019

up 7% on May 2018 

-above the 43-year average of 155,364!

https://caanhousinginequalitywithaussieslockedout.com/2019/07/12/immigration-arrivals-hit-another-record-high/

AS revealed in many reports the goal of International Students has been to gain Permanent Residency … 

June 2019 report from Macro Business:

‘ … The pivot to India and Nepal suggests the international student bubble is about to burst.

… often for the primary purpose of obtaining employment and future Australian permanent residency. ….

the volume of international students flowing into Australia’s universities are likely nearing its peak as competitor nations offer sweeter enticements in post-study work and residency, source countries improve their education standards, and Australian tertiary institutions lose their prestige value after lowering their standards.’

PERHAPS the fall-off will not be immediate as many of the current intake seek Permanent Residency?

Did Prof McDonald take into account the cost of building more Infrastructure to meet the population growth?

https://caanhousinginequalitywithaussieslockedout.com/2019/06/11/why-international-student-numbers-are-about-to-peak/

Budget relying on overestimated population growth figures, leading expert says

By political reporter Jackson Gothe-Snape

12 JULY 2019

People walk across a street.

PHOTO: The Government’s upcoming surpluses rely on its immigration projections. (ABC News: Michael Barnett)

RELATED STORY: Dutton’s visa switch turns 10,000 residents into skilled migrants

RELATED STORY: Temporary visa boom swamps Dutton’s permanent migration cuts

One of Australia’s leading demographers believes the Government’s Budget figures overestimate population growth.

Key points:

  • New figures project fewer than 70,000 international students will leave Australia annually
  • A leading population expert believes more students will leave, bringing down population growth and putting pressure on the Budget
  • Despite its pledge to cut migration, the Government projects higher migration this year compared to 2018

*A table of migration projection figures released through Senate estimates shows international student departures increasing only marginally over the next four years.

But Peter McDonald, a professor of demography at the University of Melbourne, said Australia could expect a surge in departures of students after they finished their degrees.

“I suspect the numbers in this table may underestimate the student departures out to 2022,” he said.

“That means net overseas migration will be lower than what is projected in these numbers, and then population growth will be lower.”

Professor McDonald, who was invited to brief state premiers and the Prime Minister about population planning in December, added that slower population growth would have flow-on effects for projections of tax receipts, production and consumption — and ultimately the Budget’s underlying cash balance.

The Government’s upcoming surpluses rely on the projections used in preparing the Budget, including immigration.

Immigration Minister David Coleman and Population Minister Alan Tudge were both on leave and unavailable to comment.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said in March that “population contributes to economic growth by simply having greater demand”, but he emphasised this was not the only source of strength for the economy.

“If you look at the non-mining investment numbers in these national accounts, they are positive which shows that companies are feeling confident to continue to invest and to grow,” he said.

*Abul Rizvi, a former senior Immigration Department official, echoed Professor McDonald and said “somewhat faster growth in student departures is more likely”.

He added that even the student arrival figures, part of the table produced by the Department of Home Affairs, might be optimistic.

*“With Home Affairs having announced significant tightening of visa processing for VET [vocational] students from Nepal, together with a decline in offshore visa grants to students from China, the growth in students Home Affairs is expecting will need to come from other sources, particularly India,” he said.

Tension between growth and congestion

Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a population plan in March, which is set to involve states having a greater say in how many migrants they receive.

Since 2016, the Government has reduced the number of visas granted in the permanent migration program from approximately 190,000 per year to 160,000.

*Despite this permanent visa cut, migration projections in the Budget this year were significantly higher than previous years.

The April Budget assumed a net overseas figure of 271,700 in 2019. This figure was up by more than 40,000 compared to the previous Budget.

*Labor’s population spokesman Andrew Giles said the Liberals “have no real population plan”.

“The Liberals talk a big game when it comes to reducing permanent migration but the facts tell a different story,” he said.

Population projections used as part of the Intergenerational Report have consistently underestimated growth.

The Government has allocated about $6 million per year to a new Centre for Population within Treasury to provide detailed analysis and advice on population issues.

*The centre will “help all levels of government and the community better understand how states’, cities’ and regions’ populations are changing and the challenges that change presents”, according to a recent job advertisement.

The Government is introducing two new regional visas in November to encourage more migrants to move to regions, as it seeks to reduce congestion in the major cities.

Australian immigration projections at a glance

20182019202020212022
Net overseas migration (NOM) arrivals
Temporary visas340,600359,100365,200368,800371,500
Student167,600175,600180,500182,200182,900
Temporary work skilled28,40033,20033,00033,50034,000
Visitor79,30082,70082,90083,00083,100
Working holiday50,30051,80053,00054,30055,600
Other temporary visas15,00015,80015,80015,80015,800
Permanent visas90,70087,90087,60086,80086,700
Other (Aus/NZers)109,600111,300110,800110,000109,200
Total NOM arrivals540,800558,200563,600565,700567,400
NOM departures
Temporary visas143,100147,700152,300157,300162,300
Student57,20059,60062,00065,10068,200
Temporary work skilled15,30015,40015,40015,40015,400
Visitor17,30016,30016,10016,10016,100
Working holiday23,30024,90025,90026,40027,100
Other temporary visas30,10031,50033,00034,30035,500
Permanent visas21,20021,40021,60021,90022,200
Other (Aus/NZers)117,000117,500118,400118,800119,000
Total NOM departures281,200286,600292,400298,100303,500
Net overseas migration
(Arrivals minus departures)
259,600271,700271,300267,600263,800

Notes: The figures are based on “net overseas migration”, an approach used to count residents, based on whether people have spent 12 of the previous 16 months in Australia.

The categories reflect the visas on which migrants enter Australia.

A person who arrives on a visitor visa then switches to a student visa after three months will therefore count as a visitor in the table once they have spent 12 months in the country.

When they leave, they will count as a student. Some figures do not add up due to rounding.

Contact Jackson Gothe-Snape

SOURCE: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-12/budget-population-growth-estimates-too-high/11292846

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